On The Third Hand

Austin Bay Blog — Iraqi National Guard Merges With Iraqi Army

Combine the above with other news inside and outside the country, and possibilities open up.

1. Reports are airing on Iraqi radio and TV connecting Syria with the terrorists.

2. Lebanon, by all reports, is rising up against Syria.

And now the report that the Iraqi army is being ‘upgraded’.

Back when we first took over word was the new Iraqi army would be a light infantry self-defense force. Now it would appear we’re working on a heavy mechanized force capable of offensive operations. An ally instead of an auxilliary.

Worst case? The Syrians crush the Lebanese uprising. The world protests, and is ignored. The American and Iraqi militaries are expanded, possibly the British, Australian, and maybe even the Polish militaries as well. The Lebanese revolt takes root in the hills, Syria becomes mired in an insurrection. The U.S. gathers evidence to support action against Syria. And popular support for a Syrian War. The Iraqi people begin to call for action as well.

Upshot? We invade Syria, depose the Syrian government, and Free Lebanon.

Iran’s reaction is the question. Do they join Syria, or stay neutral. If they join Syria what would the Iraqi’s response be? Considering all the damage Iran did to Iraq in their last war, it’s rather likely the Iraqis would call for action against Tehran in such a case.

And here’s an important matter to consider, even now the Iraqi military is of a higher quality than either the Syrian or the Iranian. The disparity can only get worse as time passes.

That’s the worse case. The best for the U.S. would be for Syria to withdraw from Lebanon. Puts Syria in a stronger position vis a vis Iraq, but it also gives the United States more time. More time to grow both the U.S. and the Iraqi militaries. More time to prepare. And the preparation will do us more could than it will Syria, because Syria doesn’t have the resources in personnel, material, and capability that we have. It also gives us more time to prepare Iraq for a war with Syria. A war the Iraqis are now getting psyched up for.

We’ve had our Guadalcanal, we’re now getting ready for the Marshall islands. After that it’s the Home Islands, Iran.