On The Third Hand

Saturday, 16 Feb 2002

Wars [permalink]

The Captain of the USS (badly misnnamed) Clueless has some perspicacious suggestions on ways to attack Iraqi cities. I've been following the commentaries going on between him, Sgt Stryker, Douglas Turnbull, and a number of thoughtful people in the USS Clueless Forum. They have come to the conclusion that if we attack Iraq, Saddam's best bet is to give up the countryside and fight in the cities.

I think that that scenario would depend on whether Saddam's intelligence or his ego wins out. He is undeniably intelligent, but he is also proud. I'm not at all sure he would not throw his armies at us in the country side, just because he could not bear to let us gain an inch. That gives us the advantage. But I also agree that we cannot count on it, and if he chooses to really fight (as opposed to making a show), we would be at a disadvantage. In that case, a combination of the Captain's suggestions (with a few adaptions) would at least make things a bit more even.

All this "how to" debate is fascinating. I do not however; think it is a good idea to attack Iraq militarily at this time. Iran is right next door to Iraq. There's too much chance of Iran attacking us as well.

I would rather see some serious psyops and (very) undercover aid given to the Iranians who are trying to drag their mullah-enhanced government into the modern world. If we can help them, we end up with a reasonably friendly (to us) country neighboring Iraq. Iran has no reason to love Saddam. At present, the mullahs who actually run the country see him as the lesser of two evils -- it's between giving up power and allowing their people to have freedom (horrifying western idea, that...) and allying with Iraq.

A free (or at least freer) Iran would be very distracting to Iraq. We'd then also have two countries bordering Iraq that are reasonably US friendly. That could be a great advantage, no matter what we chose to do about Iraq. But the main point is that we can't afford (despite hawkish pride) to fight wars on multiple fronts. Let's help Iran free itself first, or we may find ourselves fighting both countries.
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Short Stuff [permalink]

• Who's who in terrorism. Informative article from the US DoD, with a short summary on each of the major global terrorist groups. [link via Little Green Footballs]
• If the Shays-Meehan campaign finance bill passes the Senate, and the President signs it, I shall lose all respect for him.
• Jonah takes on C-Span and conspiracy theorists. He doesn't think the "elite media" support finance reform because it will give them more power, "because journalists are neither that smart nor that devious." That means, I suppose, that he thinks he is much smarter than the rest of the media. They are all missing something that is obvious to him? Maybe.
• Conspiracy-theorist watch. Oil and piplelines again. I think these people do live in some alternate reality.
• Some interesting letters between Kenneth Lay and George W Bush on this site. I link. You decide.
• US asks: why no warning of terror attack. "Lawmakers have vowed to leave no stone unturned in pursuit of answers and in assigning blame." [As long as none of the blame points to them. --ed]
• Mark Steyn explains the "root causes" of the Olympic skating misjudgment. Ahem. Chuckle...
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